Market Update June 2025

June Snapshot

Residential sales across Metro Vancouver fell to 2,181 in June 2025, down 9.8 % from last year yet only 0.2 % below May figures (REBGV June 2025). New listings jumped 10.3 % year‑over‑year, pushing total inventory to 17,561 — the highest June level in a decade. Balanced market conditions kept prices largely flat, with the composite benchmark edging to $1,173,100, just 0.3 % lower than May.

Sales & Listings Momentum

The sales‑to‑active listings ratio (SAR) sat at 12.8 % — below the 15 % threshold that usually tips the detached segment toward buyers’ territory but above the 12 % level associated with across‑the‑board price declines (REBGV). Detached homes were the softest (9.9 % SAR) while townhomes remained the tightest (16.9 %). Inventory growth is slowing, suggesting sellers are calibrating expectations as mortgage rates stabilize.

Price Trends

Prices continue to drift sideways. The benchmark detached price slipped to $1,994,500 (‑3.2 % YoY), apartments to $748,400 (‑3.2 % YoY) and townhomes to $1,103,900 (‑3.0 % YoY). Month‑over‑month moves are minimal, indicating that buyers and sellers are waiting for a stronger signal from interest‑rate policy and summer demand.

Supply–Demand Balance

Days‑on‑market averages held steady at 29–36 days across product types, reinforcing balanced conditions. With over 17,000 listings region‑wide and modest absorption, buyers have more choice than at any point since 2020. However, a renewed Bank of Canada easing cycle could draw sidelined purchasers back as early as the fall.

Policy Watch

Short‑term rentals: As of June 2 2025, listings without a valid provincial registration number are being removed, with platforms required to cancel outstanding bookings by June 23 (B.C. Short‑Term Rental Registry). The move is expected to push some investor‑owned condos back into the long‑term rental pool, easing vacancy pressures.

Rent cap: The Province confirmed that the 2025 maximum allowable rent increase is capped at 3 %, well below headline inflation (BC Gov News). Landlords who were banking on larger increases may now reassess cash‑flow, potentially tilting some units toward sale.

Eviction notice period: New rules effective June 18 2025 shorten the landlord‑use eviction notice to three months and require notices to be issued via the RTB web portal, with a 21‑day dispute window (RTB Guideline 2A).

Interest rates: On June 4 2025 the Bank of Canada left the policy rate unchanged at 2.75 %, reiterating a data‑dependent stance after two earlier cuts this year (Bank of Canada). Stable financing costs are giving buyers clearer visibility heading into the summer market.

Why It Matters

• Buyers: Balanced conditions mean more negotiating power without the fear of rapid price escalation.
• Sellers: Accurate pricing is critical; over‑priced listings risk sitting as inventory builds.
• Investors: Stricter STR rules and capped rent growth shift focus to long‑term fundamentals.
• Renters: A 3 % rent cap plus potential STR units returning to market could moderate rental inflation.

REBGV June 2025 Metrics

• Detached: 6,650 active / 657 sales, Benchmark $1,994,500, 36 DOM, 9.9% SAR
• Townhome: 2,793 active / 473 sales, Benchmark $1,103,900, 29 DOM, 16.9% SAR
• Apartment: 7,456 active / 1,040 sales, Benchmark $748,400, 35 DOM, 13.9% SAR
• Total: 17,561 active / 2,181 sales, Benchmark $1,173,100, 12.8% SAR

Sub‑Market Highlights

Vancouver West led price resilience, with detached values flat year‑over‑year despite a 14 % decline in sales. In contrast, Maple Ridge and Pitt Meadows recorded the steepest price pull‑back (‑4.8 % for detached) as inventories climbed faster than regional averages. Whistler remained a niche outlier, seeing a 6 % uptick in apartment prices on limited supply.

Macro‑Economic Context

British Columbia’s unemployment rate rose to 5.7 % in May, its highest since 2021, yet wage growth (4.1 % YoY) continues to outpace inflation (2.6 %) (Statistics Canada). Lower borrowing costs have already revived pre‑approvals; TD Economics projects a return to sub‑2.5 % overnight rates by mid‑2026, front‑loading demand into 2025H2.

Forward‑Looking Indicators

Mortgage renewals are the wild card. Nearly $260 billion in Canadian mortgages originated at ultra‑low pandemic rates will reset in the next 12 months (CMHC). Each 100‑basis‑point increase in effective rates trims average buying power by roughly 8 %. If renewals proceed smoothly owing to lower rates, we could see renewed move‑up activity in early 2026; if not, sellers may crowd the market later this year.

Construction Pipeline

Housing starts in Metro Vancouver hit 28,300 (SAAR) in May 2025, led by rental apartments (CMHC Starts & Completions). Rising land and labour costs have delayed several condo launches; developers cite a need for presale absorption rates above 45 % to break ground, versus the 32 % achieved in Q1. Expect fewer new condo units to complete in 2027‑28, potentially tightening ownership supply once demand recovers.

Comparative National Perspective

Greater Toronto recorded a steeper 18 % YoY sales slide in June, reflecting higher investor sensitivity to vacancy‑tax hikes, while Calgary sales fell just 3 %, spotlighting continued in‑migration (CREA). Metro Vancouver’s relative stability underscores its chronic supply deficit and high proportion of primary‑residence buyers.

Days‑on‑Market Deep‑Dive

Median days‑on‑market (DOM) rose by 5 days year‑over‑year, but dispersion widened. Well‑priced East Vancouver detached homes under $1.8 million still sold in under 15 days, whereas luxury westside listings sat for 60 days or more. The message: pricing strategy and product‑market fit matter more than ever.

Financing Corner

Fixed five‑year mortgage rates now average 4.34 %, down from 5.89 % a year ago (Ratehub). Qualifying stress tests still use a 2‑percentage‑point buffer, meaning buyers must prove they can pay ~6.3 %, but every 10‑bp drop adds roughly $6,000 to maximum borrowing room on a $600 k mortgage.

Outlook

If the Bank of Canada begins a second easing leg in October, we anticipate modest price gains (2‑3 %) by spring 2026, concentrated in apartments and entry‑level townhomes. Conversely, a slower rate path combined with the province’s elevated construction pipeline could keep prices flat into mid‑2026.

This article is for informational purposes only. Statistics and market conditions are current as of the publication date and may change without notice. It is not legal or financial advice. Always verify details and consult qualified professionals before making real-estate decisions.